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ARCH-GARCH MODEL on VOLATILITY of CRUDE OIL

In this study, the best method was tried to be found in order to apply model on volatility of crude oil via using daily price of crude oil between 2015 and 2016 years. This study consists of crude oil price since crude oil is the very volatile commodity. Findings about study is that there is an arch effect on crude oil prices and the best model for modelling is GARCH ( 1,1). After determining the model, ARCH LM test was applied for GARCH (1,1) and results indicate that there is no arch effect among error terms. Furthermore, when crude oil prices are controlled graphically, crude oil has sharp volatility since Rusia, Ukrania, Greece, Iran and Iraq are seem as geopolitical risk. A deal which OPEC members and decision which play an essential role on crude oil also constitute market price for crude oil. Especially, commodity such as crude oil has trend in direction of FED and China. Any news or progress about macroeconomic variables or decision lead to volatility. For this reason, crude oil price has fluctuation by climbing peak and decreasing the deepest point from begining of 2015 to end of 2016 years.



Anahtar Kelimeler
Volatility Model, ARCH and GARCH Model, Forecasting, Unit Root, Stationarity

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