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Abstract


THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: PANEL CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

Exchange rate is basically the equivalent of the currency of a country in the currency of another country and is an important factor in determining the real value of a country's money. Beside, exchange rates are the indicator of the competitiveness of countries. However, the exchange rate is closely related to some macroeconomic variables such as exports, imports, inflation, interest, investments and so on. The changes in the exchange rates also affect economic growth as well as these macroeconomic factors in the short term. While high value of the exchange rate affects economic growth positively in the short term, it may negatively affect the growth in the long term. For a balanced economic growth, governments must correctly determine their policies on exchange rates. That the relationship between real exchange rates and economic growth will give different results for the developed and developing countries is emphasized in the literature. In general, while there is no effective relationship between economic growth and real exchange rates in developed countries, this effect is explicit and negative in developing countries. However, The existence of the relationships between real effective exchange rate and economic growth continues to be relevant. The aim of this study is to investigate whether there are short and long term relationships between real effective exchange rate and economic growth for country groups with different income levels using causality tests. Short-term causality relationships between real effective exchange rate and economic growth were investigated with panel data causality analysis. Although the results obtained from the study changed from a country to another one, it was observed that there was a positive causality relation from economic growth to real effective exchange rate and a negative causality relation from real effective exchange rate to economic growth.



Keywords
Economic Growth, Real Exchange Rate, Panel Data Analysis



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