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Abstract


FACTORS THAT EFFECT INTEREST RATES: THE CASE OF TURKEY (2002-2018)

Recognized as an a priori variable in current economics literature, interest is defined as the amount paid in return for a loan to the lender at the end of the specified term. Interest rates are remarkably important for both businesses and governments. Besides, when international investors make decisions for transferring resources to a country or demanding securities of a country, they take into consideration not only expected profits but also interest rates. Through negatively impacting the investment decisions, high interest rates may effect a decrease in production. As the production capabilities of a country is tightened, economic growth cannot be achieved and unemployment inevitably increases. Additionally, as the interest rates lower, saving-holders will prefer to spend their savings for consumption instead of keeping them. In economics as a science containing numerous contradictions, whether interest rates are to be high or low depends on other problems of economy circularly. İnterest is a key indicator for today’s world markets in which domestic markets and globalization take place at the same time. Realization of economic indicators at the desired levels is one of the preconditions for economic stability in a country. Over-increase or over-decrease in interest rates will bring about various problems alongside. It is important to determine the factors influencing the interest phenomenon and rates for economic order. The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors impacting the interest rates. Quarterly data for Turkey between 2002 and 2018 is employed to examine the interest rates’ relationships with the currency values, inflation, public debt stock, LIBOR, and liquidity supply separately through vector auto-regression (VAR) and Granger analysis. It is identified that a variation in the interest rates impacts public debt stock and inflation predominantly.



Keywords
Deposit Interest Rates, Inflation, Vector Autoregression



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