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Abstract


INVESTIGATION OF CEMENT STOCK QUANTITY PREDICTION MODELS IN THE REGIONS

Enterprises need inventory control in order to keep up with the demand increase in certain periods. The inventory keeping requests of enterprises have led to the development of inventory estimation methods. In this study, model tests have been carried out to estimate the inventory amount of the cement product, which has an important role in the development of our country. First, it was performed the situation analysis of the cement industry in the world and in Turkey. The relationship between the inventory quantity and the variables determined as a priori which affect the stock quantity was examined by Hendry's General-Specific Modeling method and VAR method. Special models were obtained for the selected Mediterranean and Marmara geographical regions. Multiple regression models of these models were obtained and the predicted performances of the models were evaluated regionally. The working period is 2010 January-2015 December A total of 72 data (6 years * 12 months) were studied. Six independent variables, which were determined a priori to affect the amount of stock, and “amount of stock” as the dependent variable were used in the statistical analysis. According to the results obtained, the stock amount in the cement sector is affected by the variables of “construction turnover index” and “stock quantity of the previous period” for both regions.This study is expected to be a pioneer in inventory estimation models for other sectors.



Keywords
Inventory, VAR Method, Impact-Response Functions Analysis



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