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Abstract


THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT OF SAUDI ARABIA AND RUSSIA OIL PRICE WAR ON WORLD OIL MARKETS

As the world battled a global epidemic and economic recession during the Covid-19 outbreak, the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia has affected oil markets since March 2020. At the OPEC-Non-OPEC ministerial meeting on December 6, 2019, in Vienna, it was hoped that Saudi Arabia and Russia would act in accordance with decisions they jointly take in accordance with their national interests. However, while Saudi Arabia wanted to implement a policy of increasing production that would lower the price of oil, Russia wanted the rate of oil production to be reduced in the hope of higher oil prices. In light of these developments, the aim of this study is to investigate the negative impact of the oil price war that has taken place between Saudi Arabia, which is a member of OPEC, and Russia, which is ranked among the most powerful oil producing countries in the world without being a member of OPEC. As part of the study, global oil demand between 2018 and 2020 was compared, and oil reserves and production data were included. In addition, the oil market prices resulting from the Covid-19 epidemic and the oil price war between the two countries which caused the collapse of the oil markets were assessed. During the assessment, oil market forecasts for the years 2020-2024 have been included. In the study, the relevant literature was reviewed, and the international oil price indexes and forecasts were presented in tables and charts. As a result of the study, it was observed that after the temporary price and production war that lasted until April 2020, the normalization process was achieved by concluding a treaty according to some, or a ceasefire for others. However, it was concluded that the oil markets, scattered like a sandcastle due to the global recession and the global epidemic, reacted negatively to the crisis between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Naturally, there is a fluctuation in the forecast for oil prices for years to come, as the price recovery that has suddenly hit bottom and market reactions are supposed to take time.



Keywords
Oil demand, Price, Expectations, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Oil, Crisis, Covid-19



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