Author :
Abstract
Yeni Çağ öncesinde savaşlar toplumlarda ve piyasalarda “savaş ganimeti” kavramı sebebiyle olumlu beklentilere yol açsa da özellikle Sanayi Devrimi sonrasındaki dönemde durum tam tersine dönmüştür. Yaşanan savaşlar büyük ekonomik krizlerin de ortaya çıkmasına sebep olmaktadır. Özellikle güçlü bir ekonomiye sahip olduğu kadar askeri gücü de yüksek olan bir ülkenin; kendisinden daha güçsüz bir ülkenin toprak bütünlüğüne, demokrasi ve barış götürme gibi amaçlarla müdahale etmesi bu durumun karşısında uluslararası tepkilere ve yaptırımlara sebep olmaktadır.
Rusya ve Ukrayna arasında başlayan savaş da Batı tarafından Rusya’ya ciddi ekonomik yaptırımlar başlatılmasına sebep olmuştur. Ancak Rusya’ya karşı yürürlüğe konulan yaptırımlar karşılıksız kalmamış, Avrupa ekonomisinin enerji ihtiyacının büyük bir çoğunluğunu karşılayan Rusya’nın enerji maliyetlerini artırmasını sağlamıştır. Yüksek teknoloji silahlarının yanı sıra finansal araçların da silah olarak kullanılmaya başlandığı bu modern savaşın, Avrupa ekonomisinin beraberinde tüm Dünya’yı ciddi bir etki altına alması ve krizlere sebep olması beklenmektedir.
Çalışmamızda geçmişten günümüze savaşların Dünya ekonomisine etkilerini ve Avrupa-Rusya arasındaki ekonomik ilişkileri inceleyerek, savaşın olası sonuçlarının öngörülmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bunu yaparken AB’nin Rusya ve Ukrayna arasındaki dış ticaret verilerinin değerlendirilmesi yapılmıştır. Yapılan incelemeler sonucunda iki ülke arasındaki savaşın başta tedarik zinciri sorunları olmak üzere; enerji, gıda, hammadde gibi konularda büyük sorunlara yol açacağı öngörülmüştür. Çalışma ile birlikte savaş sonrası dönemde Avrupa’nın ve hatta dolaylı olarak tüm Dünya ekonomisinin karşılaşacağı tablo hakkında fikir sahibi olunması beklenmektedir
Keywords
Abstract
Although wars led to positive expectations due to the concept of "spoil of war" in societies and markets before the Early Modern Period, the situation has been reversed, especially in the period after the Industrial Revolution. The wars experienced also lead to the emergence of major economic crises In particular, the intervention of a country with a strong economy as well as a high military power in the territorial integrity of a weaker country for purposes such as bringing democracy and peace causes international reactions and sanctions in the face of this situation.
The war between Russia and Ukraine also caused to start serious economic sanctions against Russia by the West. However, the sanctions imposed against Russia did not go unrequited, and they increased the energy costs of Russia, which meets the majority of the energy needs of the European economy. It is expected that this modern war, in which financial instruments are used as weapons as well as high-tech weapons, will have a serious impact on the European economy and the whole world and cause crises.
In our study, it is aimed to predict the possible results of the war. While doing this, examining the effects of wars on the world economy from past to present and the economic relations between Europe and Russia has been a priority step. The next step was the evaluation of the EU's foreign trade data between Russia and Ukraine. As a result of the evaluations, it is predicted that the war between the two countries will lead to major problems such as energy, food and raw materials, especially supply chain problems. With the study, it is expected to have an idea about the picture that Europe and even indirectly the whole world economy will face in the post-war period.
Keywords
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