Author :
Abstract
Covid-19 salgını esnasında dünya küresel bir salgın hastalık ve ekonomik durgunluk ile savaşırken, Mart 2020’den itibaren Suudi Arabistan ve Rusya arasındaki petrol fiyatları savaşı petrol piyasalarını etkilemiştir. 6 Aralık 2019 Viyana OPEC-Non-OPEC bakanlar toplantısında Suudi Arabistan ve Rusya’nın kendi ulusal çıkarları doğrultusunda ortaklaşa aldıkları kararlara göre davranacakları ümit edilmişti. Ancak, Suudi Arabistan petrol fiyatını düşürecek olan üretim arttırma politikasını uygulamak isterken, Rusya petrol fiyatlarının yükselmesi ümidiyle petrol üretim oranının azaltılmasını istemiştir. Bu gelişmeler ışığında, bu çalışmanın amacı OPEC üyesi olan Suudi Arabistan ile OPEC üyesi olmadan dünyanın en güçlü petrol üreticisi ülkeleri arasında sıralanan Rusya arasında meydana gelen petrol fiyatları savaşının petrol piyasalarına verdiği olumsuz etkinin araştırılmasıdır. Çalışma kapsamında, 2018-2020 yılları arasındaki dünya petrol talep miktarları karşılaştırılmış, petrol rezerv ve üretim verilerine yer verilmiştir. Ayrıca Covid-19 salgını ve petrol piyasalarının çökmesine neden olan iki ülke arasındaki petrol fiyat savaşı kaynaklı petrol piyasa fiyatları değerlendirilmiştir. Değerlendirme esnasında, petrol piyasalarına ilişkin 2020-2024 yıllarına ilişkin tahminlere yer verilmiştir. Çalışmada konuya ilişkin haberler ve ilgili literatür incelenmiş ve uluslararası petrol fiyat endeksleri ve tahminler tablo ve grafikler ile gösterilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucunda, Nisan 2020’ye kadar süren geçici fiyat ve üretim savaşı sonrasında kimilerine göre antlaşma kimilerine göre de bir ateşkese gidilerek normalleşme sürecinin sağlandığı görülmüştür. Ancak küresel durgunluk ve küresel salgın ile kum şatosu gibi dağılmış olan petrol piyasalarının, Rusya ve Suudi Arabistan arasındaki krize olumsuz tepki verdiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Doğal olarak birden dibe vuran fiyatların ve piyasa tepkilerinin toparlanması zaman alacağından, ileriki yıllara dönük petrol fiyatlarına ilişkin tahminlerde de bir dalgalanma yaşandığı görülmektedir.
Keywords
Abstract
As the world battled a global epidemic and economic recession during the Covid-19 outbreak, the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia has affected oil markets since March 2020. At the OPEC-Non-OPEC ministerial meeting on December 6, 2019, in Vienna, it was hoped that Saudi Arabia and Russia would act in accordance with decisions they jointly take in accordance with their national interests. However, while Saudi Arabia wanted to implement a policy of increasing production that would lower the price of oil, Russia wanted the rate of oil production to be reduced in the hope of higher oil prices. In light of these developments, the aim of this study is to investigate the negative impact of the oil price war that has taken place between Saudi Arabia, which is a member of OPEC, and Russia, which is ranked among the most powerful oil producing countries in the world without being a member of OPEC. As part of the study, global oil demand between 2018 and 2020 was compared, and oil reserves and production data were included. In addition, the oil market prices resulting from the Covid-19 epidemic and the oil price war between the two countries which caused the collapse of the oil markets were assessed. During the assessment, oil market forecasts for the years 2020-2024 have been included. In the study, the relevant literature was reviewed, and the international oil price indexes and forecasts were presented in tables and charts. As a result of the study, it was observed that after the temporary price and production war that lasted until April 2020, the normalization process was achieved by concluding a treaty according to some, or a ceasefire for others. However, it was concluded that the oil markets, scattered like a sandcastle due to the global recession and the global epidemic, reacted negatively to the crisis between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Naturally, there is a fluctuation in the forecast for oil prices for years to come, as the price recovery that has suddenly hit bottom and market reactions are supposed to take time.
Keywords
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