Author :
Abstract
J-Eğrisi hipotezi, devalüasyon (veya ulusal paranın değer kaybı) sonrasında, dış ticaret dengesinin başlangıçta bozulacağı ancak belli bir dönem sonra dış ticaret dengesinin iyileşeceğini belirtmektedir. Bu çalışma Türkiye ekonomisinde J-Eğrisi hipotezinin geçerliliğini test etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda hipotezin geçerliliği iki farklı veri seti kullanılarak ARDL Sınır Testi yaklaşımıyla araştırılacaktır. Çalışmada kullanılan birinci veri seti 1990-2015 yıllık verilerini, ikinci veri seti ise 1998:Q1-2016:Q3 çeyreklik verilerini kapsamaktadır. 1990-2015 yıllık verilerinin kullanıldığı ARDL Sınır Testi yaklaşımına göre Türkiye’de J-Eğrisi hipotezinin geçerli olmadığı, ancak 1998:Q1-2016:Q3 çeyreklik verilerinin kullanıldığı ARDL Sınır Testi yaklaşımına göre hipotezin geçerli olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Yıllık verilerin kullanıldığı modelde, J-Eğrisi hipotezinin geçerli olmamasının nedeni, döviz kuruyla dış ticaret dengesindeki ayarlamaların 10 ile 12 ay içinde gerçekleşiyor olmasıdır. Nitekim bu çalışmada Türk Lirasındaki değer düşüşlerinin ilk dört dönemde (12 ay) dış ticaret dengesini bozduğu, sonraki dönemlerde ise iyileştirdiği tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak bu çalışmada 1998:Q1-2016:Q3 dönemi Türkiye ekonomisinde J-Eğrisi hipotezinin geçerli olduğu ARDL Sınır Testi yaklaşımı kullanılarak ispatlanmıştır.
Keywords
Abstract
The J-Curve hypothesis states that, after devaluation (or depreciation of the national currency), the trade balance will initially deteriorate, but after a certain period the trade balance will improve. This study aims to investigate the validity of the J-Curve hypothesis in Turkish economy. In accordance with this purpose, the validity of the J-Curve hypothesis will be investigated by the ARDL Bound Test approach using two different data sets. The first dataset used in the study included 1990-2015 annual data, and the second dataset included 1998:Q1-2016:Q3 quarterly data. According to the ARDL bounds test approach using annual data 1990-2015 it has been determined that the J-Curve hypothesis is not valid for Turkey, but according to the 1998: Q1-2016: Q3 quarterly data J-Curve hypothesis is valid. In the model where the annual data are used, the reason why the J-Curve hypothesis is not valid is that adjustments in the foreign exchange and trade balance are made within 10 to 12 months. As a matter of fact, in this study, it has been determined that the depreciation of the Turkish Lira in the first four periods (12 months) deteriorate the trade balance and improved in the following periods. As a result, in this study J-Curve hypothesis has been proven by using ARDL bounds test approach for 1998:Q1-2016:Q3 quarterly data in Turkish economy.
Keywords
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