Author :
Abstract
İstihdam ve ihracat, ekonomik büyümenin temelini oluşturan önemli makro ekonomik değişkenlerdir. Ülkeler üretim seviyesini arttırarak bir yandan işsizlik sorununu gidermeye çalışırken diğer yandan döviz girdisi elde ederek toplumun refah düzeyini arttırmayı amaçlamaktadırlar. Bu çalışmada işsizlik, ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki Granger nedensellik testi ile analiz edilmiştir. Analize E-7 ülkeleri olarak adlandırılan 7 ülke (Brezilya, Çin, Hindistan, Endonezya, Meksika, Rusya ve Türkiye) dahil edilmiştir. İki farklı modelin kurulduğu analizde öncelikle birimlerarası korelasyonun varlığı Breusch-Pagan Lagranj çarpanı testi ile sınanmıştır. Sonrasında serilerin durağanlığı ikinci kuşak birim kök testlerinden çok değişkenli Dickey-Fuller testi ile tespit edilmiştir. Serilerin homojenliği delta testi ile test edilerek uygun gecikme uzunluğunun belirlenmesinde Hansen tarafından geliştirilen J testinden yararlanılmıştır. Son olarak Dumitrescu Hurlin testi ile seriler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi analiz edilmiştir. Model-1’de istihdamdan ekonomik büyümeye doğru, Model-2’de ise ekonomik büyümeden ihracata doğru tek yönlü nedenselliğin varlığı gözlenmiştir.
Keywords
Abstract
Employment and exports are important macroeconomic variables that form the basis of economic growth. While countries try to solve the unemployment problem by increasing the production level, they also aim to increase the welfare of the society by obtaining foreign currency input. In this study, the relationship between unemployment, exports and economic growth was analyzed by Granger causality test. In the analysis, 7 countries (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey) which is so-called E-7, were included. In the analysis in which the two models were established, first the existence of cross section dependency was tested with the Breusch-Pagan Lagranj multiplier test. Afterwards, the stationarity of the series was determined by the multivariate Dickey-Fuller test, which is one of the second generation unit root tests. The homogeneity of the series was tested with the delta test and to determine the appropriate lag length J test was used which is developed by Hansen. Finally, the causality relationship between the series was analyzed by Dumitrescu Hurlin causality test. One-way causality is observed from employment to economic growth in Model-1 and from economic growth to exports in Model-2.
Keywords
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